flow = speed x density

I attended the ALE conference in Berlin last week. It was excellent in many many ways. Lots of participants have written blog entries and I thought I would write a short one about just one of the many things I thought was really great. It was the above graph which Karl Scotland drew in his talk, The Science of Kanban.

Karl used this graph in the context of traffic.

• The green line is traffic Speed and it rises (to the right) from zero at the bottom left.
• The red line is traffic Density and it rises (to the left) from zero at the bottom right.
• The black line is traffic Flow and equals Speed x Density.

Speaking to Karl afterwards we discussed the analogy:

• Speed = cycle time. The time it takes from the moment a piece of work enters the system to the time it gets to Done.
• Density = work in progress. The amount of work that has entered the system but hasn't yet got to Done.

Karl also pointed out two feedback loops.

• Start on the density line (red) at zero (bottom right) and increase the density (move up and to the left). For a while increasing the density increases the flow. Increasing the flow causes the density to reduce. Thus you have a stabilizing feedback loop helping to increase the flow.
• As you continue to increase the density you drop over the top of the flow-curve.
• Now as the density increases the flow decreases. And decreasing the flow causes the density to further increase. Thus you have a different destabilizing feedback loop helping to decrease the flow.

Simple and effective. Thank you Karl.